“Errors since last August, relative to the initial official private payroll print, have ranged from an undershoot of 337,000 in January to an overshoot of 348,000 in June, with a mean absolute error of 85,000,” he wrote. “So it’s still too early to call this a consistent slowdown in the labor market.”Įconomist Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics brushed off Wednesday’s ADP payroll estimates, calling them “unreliable.” “We’ve seen other times when we’ve had a relatively weak private sector number sandwiched between two stronger months,” Richardson said during a call with reporters. The Fed cares a lot about jobs data - but it may be getting mixed signals REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters However, economists were quick to note that the underlying trend remains one of cooling.Īn employee hiring sign with a QR code is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report for August showed that the number of available jobs unexpectedly bolted higher, rattling markets. Still, data can be bumpy on a month-by-month basis. ![]() While ADP’s tabulations don’t always correlate with the official federal jobs report - due out Friday - it’s sometimes viewed as a proxy for overall hiring activity, which has been gradually easing. The ADP report is an independent measure of employment trends and is developed using anonymized and aggregated payroll data from its clients. Large businesses with 500 or more employees drove the decline, losing 83,000 jobs. The largest declines were in professional and business services trade, transportation and utilities and manufacturing, according to ADP. The leisure and hospitality sector continued to lead job growth, with an estimated 92,000 positions added during the month. ![]() “Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months.”Īnnual pay increases for people who remained at their jobs were 5.9%, the slowest gains since October 2021 and were 9.5% for “job changers.” “We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement Wednesday morning. It’s the slowest pace of job growth reported by ADP since January 2021. The September tally landed well below economists’ estimates for 153,000 jobs added, as well as August’s upwardly revised total of 180,000 jobs added. ![]() US employers in the private sector added an estimated 89,000 jobs in September, a much lower total than expected and a potential indication of a sharp pullback in the labor market, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday.
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